Trump speaks of "great progress" on the first day of the US-China meeting in Geneva.

After weeks of keeping the world on tenterhooks, playing cat and mouse—if you called me, no, it was you—high-level delegations from the United States and China met this Saturday in Geneva, and they hope to continue their meeting this Sunday, against the backdrop of the trade war unleashed by President Donald Trump.

This first day ended without any statement about the meeting. However, Trump did offer an assessment on his social media account. “A very good meeting today with China in Switzerland. Many things were discussed and much was agreed upon. A complete reset was negotiated in a friendly but constructive manner. We want to see, for the benefit of both China and the U.S., an opening of China to American business. Great progress was made,” he wrote.

Beijing also weighed in, through the state news agency Xinhua, in a less triumphant tone. "The meeting is an important step toward resolving the problem, but a definitive solution requires sufficient patience and strategic determination, as well as the rightful support of the international community," he added.

Although the stakes are high, and while distrust between the two major global powers is at an all-time high, with each trying not to appear to be the weaker party, analysts maintained that expectations of a breakthrough resulting in tariff cuts are slim.

One of the doubts is to see which of the two countries is willing to make the necessary concessions.

The merit lay precisely in the fact that there was a thaw due to the mere fact that they were sitting face to face, a step that was expected to lessen the existing tension.

Scott Bessent, Secretary of the Treasury and leader of the US team, had already made this clear the day before. Geneva is about taking a first step in de-escalation that would pave the way for future negotiations. The Chinese delegation, led by Vice Premier He Lifeng, warned that it would not bow to "imperialists and thugs."

According to the Chinese Foreign Ministry, "this trade war was initiated by the US and China strongly opposes it." It reiterated its support for dialogue, provided it is "on an equal footing."

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So no one had any hope that this first conversation would produce an agreement that would change the current state of the trade conflict.

The crux of the matter revolved around determining what each side would do and how negotiations could move forward.

Washington and Beijing entered the Swiss ambassador's mansion at the UN with tariffs on each other's products at historic highs. The US imposed 145% tariffs on goods imported from China, and China responded with 125%.

Just hours earlier, the US president had maintained that 80% tariffs "seemed like the right thing to do." This concession, ahead of the meeting, was not only unacceptable to Chinese leader Xi Jinping, but also marked a percentage that was out of reach for good practices and the health of international trade.

The US is seeking to reduce its deficit with China and is trying to convince the Asian country to abandon what it calls a mercantilist economic model and contribute more to global consumption, a change that would require significant political reforms. Beijing, however, is pushing back against what it considers external interference. It wants Washington to lower tariffs, clarify what it wants China to buy more of, and treat it as an equal.

The two delegations met in the morning and, after a couple of hours of talks, broke for lunch. They met face-to-face again in the afternoon.

Both Trump and Xi are trying to gain advantage through this trade war, but both also face great risks if this situation goes too far.

Edward Alden, a U.S. economics expert at the Council on Foreign Relations, told The Hill that it's unclear whether either side is willing to make the concessions necessary to de-escalate. "The Trump administration knows how to conduct very one-sided negotiations with smaller, weaker trading partners, and China isn't going to agree to a negotiation on those terms," ​​he noted.

"China wants this to be a negotiation between equals, so both sides have to make concessions, and we don't know what Trump will find acceptable," he added.

So far, China's trade traffic to the United States fell 17.6% in April, although Beijing increased its trade last month by diverting ships to Southeast Asia, South America, Europe, and Africa.

Economists indicated that tariffs between the two countries, even if they are lowered in the coming months, will cause damage to global supply chains and raise the price of goods in the U.S. And if the trade war is sustained, it could fuel a recession and even stagflation: high inflation, unemployment, and economic stagnation.